UPDATE: THE FALL OF GOOGLE

JANUARY 03, 2010

Interesting to see how facebook is now moving up the valuation charts. Funny when I was the only one even possible before Zuckerberg started sending private e-mails to Google staff seeking to get them to work for him, that the company would worth in the near future US$100 billion that I already wrote my blog post way before. Then again what do I know?

Facebook Now Worth More Than Yahoo And eBay

Facebook’s latest round of financing from Goldman Sachs at a $50 billion valuation, which is about the same valuation its shares are trading on SecondMarket, clearly puts it in the pantheon of the most valuable Internet companies. At $50 billion, Facebook is now worth more than Yahoo (which has a $22 billion market cap) and eBay ($37 billion), and almost worth more than both of them combined—and that is before it has even gone public. On the valuation scale of publicly traded Internet companies, however, it is still smaller than Amazon ($83 billion) and Google ($193 billion).

Read full article techcrunch

SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

The info in Block quote was released today. That is 6 days after my article. What say you?

Meanwhile, Mike says Facebook is “quietly telling people, never in writing, that there’s no reason their stock won’t hit $100 billion in total valuation over the next couple of years.”

From article Googler Turns Down $500,000 Cash Bonus To Quit And Join Facebook By businessinsider.com

ORIGINAL RELEASE

A few years ago I recall reading on a top tech blog at the time of Google’s stock riding high almost at $800 a pop. Around the same time facebook was fast rising and some were arguing that they were worth if I recall US$8-15 billion while they had less than 100 million users.

It is so vague now, but I recall a mysterious genius leaving some comments about Google and making some prediction on their shares. The claim was that their value will fall to almost half within six months. Of course there were no rumours flying around in respect to this prediction prior to it being made. Of course true to form the Google share fell to almost half.

At around the same time the same poster made a comment that facebook was valued more like $2-4 billion. A few weeks or months later some VCs came out and said they did not think facebook was as much as many thought they were worth. As such talks of entertaining raising capital based around such valuations then fell to zero until the Russian came knocking. Of course today they are worth more than US$15 billion, and more like US$100 billion.

As such Google future was sealed not by clever moves from facebook, but by the nature and evolution of the Internet itself which is in itself based on user preferences.

Google has been very clever in keeping its name relevant by entering various products and services outside of search. As such the name was almost always in the headlines regardless if the new product or service was a success or a epic failure.

But when a search company like a cable company, becomes a phone company it is a sign that convergence and innovation in convergence will kill the grand daddies of the Internet.

Google has either entered or seeking to enter the e-mail market, Web2.0 social platform, mobile phone hardware market, IPTV/Internet TV, VoIP, Global mapping applications (though could be relevant at a later date for 3D live search) and god knows what else.

All entrants and future entrants keep their brand relevant in the news. But with all their cash, what new product has Google launched that was a hit or could pose a challenge in popularity to facebook, iPhone, or iPAD? After 10 years/ a complete decade what has Google done to innovate the search engine space?

Google wave was a failed attempt at Inbox2.0. The platform may have been brilliant and may not have. But regardless of the platform in the end all that matters is the GUI and how the user experience is. As such Google Wave GUI was an insult to Web2.0.

Google Wave GUI demonstrated that Google does not have the right talent in creating a meaningful product outside of its core business of a search engine.

Now VoIP or phone calls from within websites, social network profiles is nothing new. For the past 5 years I have been watching JaJah, also Jangle and others in the space that pose a killer challenge to Skype.

I knew then that any company that placed several key technologies inside of a social network profile, or Inbox2.0 aka e-mail social network like profile would really shake up the industry. Why did Google take 5 -6 years to arrive at this junction? If this had taken place during the meteoric rise of facebook a Web1.5 company considering it really is Web1.0 but borders on Web2.0. I do not think facebook would be facebook today.

Then again facebook rise may not be its own doing. And quite possible forces who see it as global domination via silent revolutions in foreign countries. When independent nations realize the dangers facebook can pose to their national security. Will be the slow but steady decline of faceboook global domination.

But Google’s fall will not come at the hands of facebook current global domination. facebook currently model cannot allow it to sustain the future needs of the Internet. Besides it being not economical unless they were to begin to charge for premium services. Facebook in a normal market in the absence of a replacement or viable competitor is worth $100 billion.

Not for its platform but the data on it and its reach and the implication it means for Google. As such Microsoft most likely will buy facebook. But unless they know what to do with facebook after purchasing it.

Such a deal would be the second biggest Internet acquisition for when fools rush in as was the case when Time Warner bought AOL 10 years ago.

See press release on this blunder: AOL Buys Time Warner for $162 billion By abcnews.go.com

Google’s fall will come from its own hands. Google technically is 100% irrelevant in respect to a Internet user conducting a search query from Google’s home page or search plug in. The fact of the matter is there are options, though the market may not reflect these options as yet in respect to choice.

Once such options and other forms of accessing search content/data can be acquired outside of the Google ecosystem. You will begin to see the steady decline of Google. Ask yourself the following question.

If you could access all content or as much content on the web as found when you visit Google on another web portal. Would you still go to Google beyond the fact that you are already programmed in doing so?

The fact is the name is edged in stone in many ways with so many users. But as new entrants emerge with a viable and more attractive alternative the slow migration will take place initially then in mass exodus.

Google may have some cash to buy various start ups in fending off its the possibility in becoming obsolete. In becoming a Lycos, a infoseek.com, a AltaVista, or in the case with Netscape versus Micorsoft’s IE. Thus becoming one of the old has been Internet companies.

Google has certainly been clever in keeping the brand in the media. As such if they are lucky to strike Gold with a facebook killer they would still enjoy easy access to market. However if their track record in failed new products and services continue and a new start up enters the market and begins a tango dance with facebook.

Then the media and the world will soon have two new media darlings on their slips to talk about. When this begins, the out of site out of mind phenomenon will take place for Google.

So what is Google?

1. A Internet TV giant?

2. A mobile phone giant?

3. A software giant?

4. A digital map giant?

5. A e-mail company?

6. A wannabe social network giant?

7. A dying search engine giant?

8. One of the oldest search engines on the Internet?

9. A search engine like any other search engine on the Internet in respect to user experience an search results?

I am not sure what Google is today.


Interesting articles from the web:

See article Here’s The Real Reason Google Is So Worried About Facebook By businessinsider.com

For general info read:

Blind Spots: Here’s What The Biggest Tech Companies Suck At

By businessinsider.com

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